I was poking around my old YouTube channel recently — the one that has been sitting in mothballs for the last few years — and I came across my most-viewed video.

It was called “Moving to Phoenix — Take Your Time.”

More than 50,000 people watched that video, which still surprises me a little. Apparently, a lot of people were either thinking about moving to Phoenix or trying to understand why everything here is 45 minutes from everything else.

Thirteen years ago, I made that video to help buyers understand something that was true then and is even more true now:

Metro Phoenix is not one place.

It is a giant collection of cities, neighborhoods, lifestyles, commutes, price points, personalities, and weather-related coping mechanisms.

And it is big. Really big. Metro Phoenix is larger than the state of Maryland, which helps explain why someone can say they live “in Phoenix” and still be an hour away from the person they are talking to.

Back then, my advice was simple: don’t rush into buying a home just because it has granite counters, a pool, or because you’re looking at houses in August and trying the fend off heat exhaustion.

Take your time.

Choose the part of the Valley that actually fits your life.

Looking back now, that advice feels almost quaint. Not because it was wrong, but because so much has changed since then.

Thirteen years does not sound that long until you look at what happened in Phoenix.

Huge master-planned communities broke ground. San Tan Valley became a city. Metrocenter Mall got torn down. Cars started driving themselves around Phoenix like that’s a perfectly normal thing. A house I helped sell in 2013 for $235,000  is now worth $1.2 million!

So yes — we should probably talk.

The Valley Was Big Then. Now It Has Grown Up.

In the original video, I used three areas to make the point: Estrella Mountain Ranch, Arcadia, and San Tan Valley.

Same metro area.

Completely different lifestyles.

Estrella Mountain Ranch had the mountain views, the space, and the feeling of being tucked into a desert retreat.

Arcadia had the older homes, mature trees, charm, central location, and restaurants where people seem suspiciously good at ordering brunch.

San Tan Valley was still more of an affordability frontier — newer homes, more house for the money, and a very different commute conversation.

Those differences mattered then.

They matter even more now.

Because those three examples didn’t just appreciate in value. They became little time capsules showing how much the Valley has changed.

In Estrella Mountain Ranch, I helped buyers purchase a home in 2013 for $240,000. They later added a pool and made upgrades, and that home just sold for $620,000.

In Arcadia, I helped sell a home for $235,000 cash. The buyer added about 1,000 square feet, and it sold in 2019 for $505,000. Today, the current market value is around $1.2 million.

That one still makes me want to sit quietly and think about all my life choices.

And then there’s San Tan Valley.

In 2013, the average price in San Tan Valley was about $139,788, and roughly 39% of the market was distressed — short sales, foreclosures, bank-owned properties, the whole post-recession buffet.

Today, the average price is around $475,310, distressed sales are less than 1%, and San Tan Valley is now officially incorporated.

That is not just a price change.

That is a place growing into itself.

The Market Then Was Hot. Today It’s Different.

The funny thing is, 2013 was not some sleepy little buyer-friendly market.

It was hot.

Back then, there were about 86 homes under contract for every 100 homes on the market. Buyers often had to make decisions quickly because Phoenix was in full recovery mode after the Great Recession.

Today, there are about 38 homes under contract for every 100 homes on the market.

That is cooler, more selective, and less frantic.

But I would not necessarily say it is easier.

In some ways, today’s buyer has more breathing room. But they also have more to sort through.

More areas to consider.

More price differences.

More commute questions.

More job centers.

More redevelopment.

More “wait, is that area still far out, or is that where everything is going now?”

That is why the old advice still holds.

Maybe even more so.

Phoenix’s Economy Changed the Map

One of the biggest changes over the last 13 years is not just housing.

It is jobs.

In 2013, Phoenix was still climbing out of the Great Recession. The economy was heavily tied to construction, real estate, tourism, population growth, and all the things that come with people moving here.

Build houses. Sell houses. Furnish houses. Feed people. Entertain visitors. Repeat.

That old “construction-and-consumption” model still exists, but it is no longer the whole story.

Phoenix has become a much more serious player in high-tech manufacturing, semiconductors, batteries, electric vehicles, aerospace, data centers, finance, health care, and high-tech services.

Health care remains one of the Valley’s most consistent job creators. Construction is still important, but now a lot of that construction is being driven by industrial projects — semiconductor facilities, factories, data centers, and infrastructure — not just rooftops and subdivisions.

That changes the map.

It changes where people work.

It changes where they want to live.

It changes commute patterns, school demand, retail demand, and which areas feel like they are on the edge of the next big wave.

The north Valley is being reshaped by the huge TSMC semiconductor facility.

The southeast Valley has its own high-tech growth story. Mesa’s Elliot Road Technology Corridor, once the General Motors Desert Proving Grounds, is now home to major data centers, advanced manufacturing, and companies tied to the technology economy. Nearby, Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport gives that part of the Valley even more momentum.

And in Queen Creek, LG Energy Solution is building a major battery manufacturing complex, bringing thousands of jobs and another reason the southeast Valley is no longer just “affordable houses farther out.”

These projects matter because jobs and housing tend to follow each other around like they are on a very expensive buddy comedy road trip.

The Next Version of Phoenix Is Already Under Construction

The Valley is also preparing for enormous growth on the edges.

On the west side, Teravalis in Buckeye is planned as a massive master-planned community spanning about 37,000 acres, with long-term plans for up to 100,000 homes, 300,000 residents, and 55 million square feet of commercial development.

That is not a subdivision.

It’s practically a city with an HOA.

On the east side, Superstition Vistas is a massive long-term development area covering approximately 275 square miles of state trust land in Pinal County. It has been described as roughly the combined size of Mesa, Chandler, Tempe, and Gilbert, with the potential to eventually house up to 1 million residents. Radiance and Blossom Rock have been selling houses like hotcakes. 

That is hard to wrap your head around.

Most of us are still trying to remember where we parked at Costco.

The point is not that all of this will happen overnight. It will not.

The point is that the Valley is still very much being built.

And when you are choosing where to live, it helps to understand not just what an area looks like today, but what may be coming next.

But Phoenix Is Also Changing From the Inside

The Valley did not only grow outward.

It started reworking itself from the inside, too.

Old malls and underused commercial areas are being reimagined. Metrocenter Mall, once a major Phoenix landmark, has been torn down and is being redeveloped as The Metropolitan.

That one hits a little differently if you remember when Metrocenter was the place to go.

Now it is part of a bigger story: urban infill, redevelopment, more options closer in… and the nostralgic essence of Orange Julius.

Honestly, with the price of gas, “closer in” starts sounding less like a luxury and more like a survival strategy.

Light rail has expanded. Mesa Gateway Airport has become a bigger factor for the southeast Valley. Sky Harbor keeps getting busier. And autonomous vehicles are now part of the Phoenix transportation conversation.

In 2013, if a car showed up without a driver, we would have assumed something had gone terribly wrong.

Now it is just Tuesday.

Same Advice, Bigger Stakes

So when I look back at that old video, I think, “Wow, that advice aged well.”

Back then, taking your time meant understanding that Estrella Mountain Ranch, Arcadia, and San Tan Valley were not interchangeable.

Today, taking your time means understanding that Phoenix itself is changing in several directions at once. The edges are expanding. The center is redeveloping. The job corridors are shifting. Former “far out” areas are becoming cities. Old retail centers are becoming new neighborhoods.

Phoenix used to be known as a relatively affordable big metro. Compared with some coastal cities, it still can be. But rising housing prices, population growth, higher wages, insurance costs, utilities, groceries, and gas have changed the feel of the market.

It is not the same Valley it was 13 years ago.

And honestly, neither am I.

Which is probably why revisiting that old video feels like the right way to bring the channel back.

Not because I want to repeat what I said then.

But because the question underneath that video still matters:

How do you choose where to live in a place that keeps changing?

What Comes Next?

I don’t have a crystal ball. And if I did, I probably would have bought more Arcadia real estate in 2013.

But I do know this: Phoenix is not done changing.

The next chapter is already taking shape — in the north Valley around TSMC, in the southeast Valley around the Elliot Road Technology Corridor and LG Energy Solution, in the west Valley with Teravalis, in the east Valley with Superstition Vistas, and closer in with redevelopment projects like The Metropolitan.

That is why the advice still matters.

Don’t just shop for a house.

Pay attention to the life that comes with it. Where you live affects your commute, your routines, your budget, your weekends, and your overall quality of life. And in a Valley this big, those differences add up fast.

The right house in the wrong location is still the wrong house.

So yes — moving to Phoenix? Take your time.

Because the Valley has grown up. And there is a version of Phoenix for everybody.

You are not just choosing a house. You are choosing the version of Phoenix that’s best for you.